MISERABLE FAILURE
President was told in July
of civil war risk in Iraq

From the London Guardian:

President George Bush was warned in July that Iraq could descend into all-out civil war, according to a classified estimate which summarised the views of a number of US intelligence agencies.

Even the best-case scenario for Iraq is a political, economic and security situation described as tenuous.

The National Intelligence Estimate predicts three possible scenarios: tenuous stability, political fragmentation, or civil war.

The 50-page document, prepared in July before the latest upsurge in violence brought a sharp increase in Iraqi civilians killed and attacks on American troops, has yet to be officially released.

A spokesman for the national security council, Scott McCormack, confirmed its existence and remained upbeat, but refused to discuss the details.

And Democratic Senator Joseph Biden gets points for making an obvious, but badly needed, observation:

"The president has frequently described Iraq as 'the central front of the war on terror'," he said. "Well by that definition, success in Iraq is a key standard by which to measure the war on terror. And by that measure, I think the war on terror is in trouble."

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American failure in Iraq was preordained. Even if it's not clear to most US citizens, the people of Iraq know that our invasion was imperial in nature: how can you not hate your conqueror? That's "conqueror," rather than "liberator." The US cannot create a stable, free Iraq no matter how long we stay there. If Kerry's elected, the whole thing is just going to make him look bad, which will give the Republicans yet another shot at the White House. The future for our country is bleak whether Bush wins or not.

Of course, we could pull out of Iraq and hand the whole thing over to the UN, but I'm not going to hold my breath on that one.

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