Monday, August 27, 2012

Isaac forecast to hit New Orleans as Category 2 hurricane
Wednesday morning, but models still uncertain

From the New Orleans Times-Picayune's online presence,

Tropical Storm Isaac is on a path that will take it up the Mississippi River on Tuesday and Wednesday through the New Orleans area as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, according to the 10 p.m. forecast of the National Hurricane Center. On this path, Isaac would arrive at the mouth of the Mississippi River on Tuesday at 7 p.m, and slowly move northwest, reaching a point on the north-central edge of Lake Pontchartrain at 7 p.m., with sustained winds of 80 mph.

Center forecasters warned, however, that there's still significant uncertainty in Isaac's ultimate landfall that will likely remain until the storm becomes better organized and the steering effects of a high pressure system building west from the Atlantic Ocean become more clear.

The forecasters said a number of computer models used to predict Isaac's path have diverged in identifying its landfall, and the present forecast again nudges it towards those predicting a stronger turn to the west. But further changes in the forecast could occur on Monday.

More here.

That's the thing. We don't even really know for sure that Isaac's headed here. And we don't even know whether an evacuation will be ordered. It's kind of hard to resign myself to one of two dismal fates, weathering a cat 2 hurricane or sitting in traffic for fifteen hours on I-10, when you don't know what's happening. It might not even come here at all; actually, that's my preferred outcome.

At the moment, my plans consist of battening down the hatches and making sure I've got non-perishable food and drinking water, batteries, cat food, and on and on. I know how to do a category 2 hurricane, and have experience under my belt with Hurricane Alicia back in the day, but I am worried a bit about my car, which sits in my apartment complex's parking lot, rather than in a nice enclosed garage.

I guess we'll see. I'll keep blogging until the power's out, which hopefully won't be for long.

Also, check this guy out; he's my main source for all things hurricane related.