Monday, August 31, 2015

HOW TRUMP COULD WIN IT ALL

Like the small and seemingly inconsequential weakness the rebels use in the first Star Wars film to take out the Death Star, I believe I have discovered a weakness in the American political system that could conceivably allow Donald Trump to become president.

It is, as we know, now entirely possible that Trump might get the GOP nomination. He is, after all, currently the front runner, and not just by a little bit, but by a lot. In polls, he's crushing his opponents. Barring some sort of massive stumble, and given the way things have been going for him, lots of what would be stumbles for other candidates have simply increased his appeal among Republicans, which makes me uncertain about what kind of stumble it could be, Trump's got it in the bag.

That's when things get really interesting. The conventional wisdom appears to be that America will simply laugh him off, that we're safe, that it could never happen. Okay, I sure hope not.

But this certainty just doesn't line up with what this country has become. I mean, you know, we're all into our political debates and everything, and we're all very passionate about our issues. Except that we're not. The big debates, all the animosity and hostility between liberals and conservatives, that's just a relatively small portion of the population. Most people don't give a shit. Most people don't understand that they're supposed to formulate political ideas, inform themselves, take governing the nation seriously. Most people don't vote.

In this sense, I have great respect for the conservative opposition. At least they get that democracy is something citizens have to do, that we have responsibilities as individuals for the well being of the nation. I totally disagree with their ideas, but I respect them as citizens. Trump aside, they know we have to argue about ideas and vote.

Most Americans aren't like that, though. Most Americans just stay out of it. Most Americans hate politics. But you know what most Americans love? They love celebrities. They love successful rich businessmen. They love tough guys who piss people off. And they would very likely love the chance to vote for Kim Kardashian, or Donald Trump, whatever, for president.

And that's the systemic weakness right now that might put Trump into the Oval Office. We might get people showing up to vote who never vote at all, people who watch a lot of reality television and read People Magazine, people who know nothing about the affairs of the nation, but who LOVE celebrities. I mean, it's probably more likely that they continue to sit on their couches watching TV on election day, but we just don't know that for sure.

My general analysis for the last decade or so is that the Republicans have gotten so crazy that there's just no way they can win a national election, but there is a slight chance that the American moron contingent shows up to vote with enough strength that it gives Trump the edge. I mean, the moron contingent neither knows nor cares that Trump, and the party who nominated him, have the ideological equivalent of rabies. We could all be in very big trouble.

Of course, an asteroid might hit the planet, or a satellite might fall on your head. I'm not going to lose sleep over this. Until I have to.

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